Donald Trump Gets Pennsylvania Boost as Democrats’ Voter Lead Drops

Former President Donald Trump is seeing a boost in Pennsylvania as Democrats have lost ground among registered voters in the crucial swing state.
More than 66,000 people registered to vote in Pennsylvania in August, according to data from L2 Data, a political data firm, that was reviewed by Newsweek.
Democrats led new voter registrations with 25,314 last month, while Republicans registered 23,839 new voters. There were also more than 17,000 “other” registrations in the Keystone State in August.
However, Republicans have registered more than 102,000 new voters in Pennsylvania this year through August, while Democrats have registered about 96,000, according to L2.
And while Democrats still have 338,000 more total registered voters statewide than Republicans, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has reported that the margin is the slimmest Democrats have had in the state in decades and less than half of their advantage in 2016, when Trump won Pennsylvania by just over 44,000 voters.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
Trump needs to carry at least one of the three swing states that make up the so-called blue wall—Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin—to get the needed 270 Electoral College votes to win the White House in November.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, is narrowly leading in all three states—Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin—according to most recent polls, and Pennsylvania is considered to be the closest race among them. If Harris is able to carry all three, as well as Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, she would win November’s election without winning any other battleground state, barring any shock results elsewhere.
The recent voter trends “represent increased vulnerability for Democrats in Pennsylvania, a state that’s almost a must-win battleground for Kamala Harris,” Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, told Newsweek.
Gift adds that while Democrats still hold an advantage in total registrations, “a narrowing of the gap” between Republicans and Democrats in Pennsylvania “signals potential momentum for Donald Trump in a state where he won in 2016, but lost in 2020.”
Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, said the numbers “suggest Republicans are investing more heavily in their ground game, getting more of their supporters to register to vote.”
He added: “It could also suggest Republican voters are more energized in this election cycle in Pennsylvania.”
Grant Davis Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, noted that historically, Republicans “have had higher turnout, per registered voter, so making up ground in registered voters could reflect an important trend.”
He told Newsweek: “I would have thought, given the new unity and enthusiasm within the Democratic Party, that these numbers would be different. It tells me that something is happening among the Republicans, perhaps almost separate from Trump’s own organization, to get people registered and get out the vote. It’s not good news for Democrats, that’s for sure. It may also reflect that the economy is the central issue for voters, and the Republicans are winning that particular argument with them.”
But they noted that what ultimately matters is turnout.
“It’s important to be cautious about over-interpreting these numbers,” Gift said. “Many Pennsylvanians may simply be registering as independents, but still lean politically to the left or right. If left-leaning independents mostly show up to vote for Harris, that will put a damper on Trump’s hopes of winning the Keystone State.”
Panagopoulos added: “Of course, registration is important, in part because it is usually the biggest impediment to voting, but turnout is what ultimately matters in elections and it remains to be seen whether these new registrants will cast ballots.
“It is also worth noting the Democrats still retain an advantage in terms of registration and may have had fewer prospects to cull for registrations and also that not all Republicans will necessarily vote for Trump. These patterns can be revealing, but they may also mask nuances that are far more complex.”
It comes as some Democratic lawmakers have expressed concerns that pollsters are underestimating Trump’s support in Pennsylvania and other battleground states, as they did in 2016 and 2020.
“Polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016,” Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman told The Hill last week. “And that’s one of the truths, is that Trump is going to be tough in Pennsylvania, and that’s absolutely the truth.”
Kush Desai, the Trump campaign’s spokesperson for Pennsylvania, also told Newsweek recently that polls underestimate support for the former president in the state.
“Pollsters, the media, and ‘intellectuals’ have repeatedly failed to grasp the depth and breadth of support for President Donald J. Trump from the American people,” Desai said.
“Americans have a clear choice this election: another four years of rising prices, open borders, and incompetence under Kamala Harris or a return to the peace, prosperity, and stability of the Trump administration. The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania is going to prove itself, once again, to be TRUMP COUNTRY in November.”
Update 10/1/24, 9:40 a.m. ET: This article has been updated to add comments.