How Much Influence Will Netanyahu Have Over Donald Trump? | Opinion

In May 2018, President Donald Trump famously pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal. It was the undoing of his predecessor, President Barack Obama’s, signature foreign policy achievement and the move, as controversial as it was, was explained as the first step needed to achieve a better deal that really stood a chance at stopping Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capability.
While Israel had long railed against the deal—officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—how much it was involved in Trump’s decision would only come out two months later. In July, a recording was published of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu boasting to Likud Party members that Israel had convinced Trump to pull out of the deal.
“We convinced the U.S. president [to exit the deal] and I had to stand up against the whole world and come out against this agreement,” Netanyahu is heard saying in the video. “And we didn’t give up.”
While there are compelling arguments showing the negative repercussions of Trump’s pullout and the void it left without a viable alternative, this episode offers a telling insight into the Trump-Netanyahu alliance as the 45th president prepares to assume office once again, this time as the 47th American head of state.
On Sunday, for example, Netanyahu revealed in the government’s weekly cabinet meeting that he has already spoken three times to Trump since he won the election just last week. It is likely that’s the most calls Trump has had with a foreign leader. In addition, Netanyahu dispatched his close confidant, Israel’s Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer, to Washington for meetings with Trump and members of his senior staff.
According to Israeli officials, Dermer was planning to present Trump with the latest on Iran’s nuclear developments as well as the framework for the deal that is being worked on by the Biden administration to end the war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. According to Netanyahu, he and Trump see “eye-to-eye” on Iran and how to stop its dangerous regional activities.
Trump’s return brings both opportunities and challenges for Netanyahu. On one hand, the incoming administration is expected to be more ideologically aligned with the current Israeli government, avoiding the friction that characterized Netanyahu’s relationship with Biden. Trump’s team includes some figures who support Israel’s presence in the West Bank, a stance Biden has long opposed.
Politically, Trump’s victory gives Netanyahu something of a boost. In addition to pulling out of the Iran deal, Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moved the U.S. embassy there, recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and while he put forward a peace deal that recognized Palestinian statehood, in a sharp break from past proposals, it did not call for the evacuation of Israeli settlements. There is now expectation that Netanyahu will be able to continue delivering strategic assets as gifts from Trump.
The challenge will be in making sure that he gets along with Trump this time around. The president-elect is already signaling that his foreign policy will diverge from his first term. Close allies of Israel like former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley will not be in the cabinet and there are some predictions that the administration might pursue a foreign policy that steps back from traditional global commitments.
It is for this reason that Netanyahu wants to make sure now—more than two months before inauguration—that he is as closely allied with Trump as possible. This is why he is keeping Trump in the loop on the potential deal in Lebanon, and why he wants to coordinate next steps against Iran, which is more vulnerable after Israel destroyed its Russian surface-to-air missile systems last month.
But Trump’s second term does not give Netanyahu a free hand over U.S. policy. The president has already told the prime minister that he wants the war in Gaza over before he takes office on Jan. 20, and while some settler leaders in Israel believe that now is the time to advance annexation of the West Bank, it is unclear that Trump will endorse such a move.
In addition, while Israel would like to advance normalization with Saudi Arabia once the war is over, to achieve that, the Saudis will want a defense pact with the United States. This might not immediately match up with a policy of moving away from regions that are prone to conflict, however close the relationship is between the Saudi royal family and Trump.
Israel’s work is set out for it. It will need to work closely with Trump and ensure that it stays aligned with his policies. Netanyahu will need to carefully navigate Trump’s shifting priorities when it comes to global affairs. While there are undoubtedly opportunities for strategic gains for Israel, they come with the need for deft diplomacy, as the support that Netanyahu once took for granted may demand a higher level of coordination and compromise.
Yaakov Katz is a senior fellow at JPPI, a global think tank for the Jewish people, and author of Shadow Strike: Inside Israel’s Secret Mission to Eliminate Syrian Nuclear Power and Weapon Wizards: How Israel Became a High-Tech Military Superpower. His next book – “While Israel Slept” – is scheduled for publication by St. Martin’s Press in 2025.
The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.